Capital Appeal 2026-2029
Avon Tyrrell
Experiential Learning & Sports Centre
A transformative new facility for young people, combining experiential learning with state-of-the-art sports provision in the heart of the New Forest.
£4.27M
Total 3-Year Income (inc. mortgage)
£2.27M
Fundraising (ex. mortgage)
£2.0M
Mortgage Facility
Apr 2029
Project Completion
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Executive Summary
Project status as at 17 May 2026. Two new loan-related risks added this month (B1 bank loan, B2 99-year lease); E1 Revenue Underperformance residual score has moved up. All other risks unchanged.
Overall Status
AMBER
AMBER
Schedule
GREEN
GREEN
Budget
GREEN
Finance: Under Review
GREEN
Finance: Under Review
Risk
AMBER
AMBER
Resources
AMBER
AMBER
Capital Appeal Lead role vacant — recruitment in progress
£4.27M
Total 3-Year Income (inc. mortgage)
£2.27M fundraising (inc. £370K already held) + £2.00M mortgage
£393.7K
Secured to Date (Pre-Apr 26)
9.2% of target
18
Active Risks
1 Very High • 1 High • 11 Medium • 5 Low (+2 new this month)
Apr 2029
Target Completion
10 milestones tracked · 4 complete
Funding Sources Breakdown
Annual Budget Phasing (£)
Key Milestones — status · workstream · % complete
- DesignFRACo Sign off RIBA Stage 3 & 4 Costs 100%19 May 2026
- DesignRIBA Complete NEW 10%30 Sep 2026
- LoanFRACo Loan Sign Off NEW11 Nov 2026
- LoanBoard Loan Sign Off12 Nov 2026
- BuildSite Possession03 May 2027
- FundraisingAchieve £1M Appeal 5%31 May 2027
- BuildWeather Tight05 Nov 2027
- BuildContract Completion14 Feb 2028
- CloseoutWithheld Payments Paid12 Feb 2029
- CloseoutProject End06 Apr 2029
Top Risks — click for details
A3 - Economic Downturn / Funding Climate Shift
Residual Score: 16 →
VERY HIGH
Residual Score: 16 →
A4 - Resourcing & Capacity Constraints
Residual Score: 9 →
HIGH
Residual Score: 9 →
B2 - 99-Year Lease Failure NEW
Residual Score: 8
MEDIUM
Residual Score: 8
E1 - Revenue Underperformance
Residual Score: 6 ↑
MEDIUM
Residual Score: 6 ↑
A1 - Funding Shortfall
Residual Score: 6 →
MEDIUM
Residual Score: 6 →
Fundraising Pipeline — T&F April 2026 pipeline · click for full detail
Progress to £4M target
£1.32M weighted · 33% of target
Confirmed £369.5K
Weighted prospects £955K
Gap to close: £2.68M
Nigel Mansell (confirmed)
£369.5K
100%
Banked — lead donor
NM+ Network Events 2026
£504K
80% weighted
Ask £630K · 13-event series
Bradbury Foundation
£150K
30% weighted
Ask £500K · decisions Nov 2026
Garfield Weston Foundation
£125K
50% weighted
Ask £250K · application in progress
Sport England
£75K
30% weighted
Ask £250K · meeting requested
Other Prospects
£101K
weighted
Jack Petchey, Prudence, Linbury, Bernard Sunley, Public Campaign
6 funders in cold / intro-required pool (Postcode Lottery, St James's Place, Steve Morgan, John Ellerman, AKO, Seroussi, UBS Optimus)
7 funders declined / no fit (Heritage Lottery, Wolfson, Clothworkers, Julia Rausing, Historic England, Pears, Intact)
RIBA Project Stage — click for timeline
Decisions Required — next FRACo 19 May 2026
Open T&F Actions — from April 2026 papers
| ID | Action | Owner | Status | Notes |
|---|
Team & Capacity — linked to risk A4 (Resourcing, High)
Capital Appeal Lead
VACANT
Fixed-term contract · ends May 2027
Fundraising Consultants
Amy Terry · Kate Ainsworth
3-month engagement to end June 2026
Corporate Partnerships
Theo Fox (permanent)
AT & Outdoor Learning focus — site visited
FTE Profile (FY 26/27)
1.0 FTE · 8 months (Apr–Nov 2026 budgeted £48,753)
Supporting Team
Vicky · David · Caroline · Rosie — risk owners
Budget Overview
Three-year capital appeal financial plan 2026–2029
£4.27M
Total Income (3-Year)
Click for breakdown
£4.49M
Total Expenditure (3-Year)
Click for breakdown
£3.39M
Build Costs (FY27/28)
Click for breakdown
£2.0M
Mortgage Facility
Click for breakdown
FY 2026/27
FY 2027/28
FY 2028/29
3-Year Summary
Income — FY 2026/27
| Source | Pre-Apr 2026 | FY 26/27 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trusts & Foundations | — | £750,000 | £750,000 |
| Corporate Partnerships | — | £250,000 | £250,000 |
| Supercar Driver Events | — | £180,000 | £180,000 |
| Zach's Garage Fundraiser | — | £100,000 | £100,000 |
| Nigel Mansell Income | £24,200 | £400,000 | £424,200 |
| Income for Fundraising Costs | — | £100,000 | £100,000 |
| Restricted Fund Drawdown | £369,500 | — | £369,500 |
| Total Income | £393,700 | £1,780,000 | £2,173,700 |
Expenditure — FY 2026/27
| Category | Pre-Apr 2026 | FY 26/27 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staff Travel | £130 | £6,000 | £6,130 |
| Mobile Phone | — | £180 | £180 |
| Consultants | — | £15,000 | £15,000 |
| Capital Appeal Events | — | £16,000 | £16,000 |
| Event Catering | — | £10,000 | £10,000 |
| Supercar Driver Events | — | £45,000 | £45,000 |
| Zach's Garage Events | — | £40,000 | £40,000 |
| Design & Marketing | — | £9,000 | £9,000 |
| Finance Arrangement Fees | — | £30,000 | £30,000 |
| Legal & Professional | £1,800 | £15,000 | £16,800 |
| Build De-Risk | £12,800 | — | £12,800 |
| Professional Fees (Design Team) | — | £151,830 | £151,830 |
| Salaries (Appeal Lead / Consultants) | — | £48,753 | £48,753 |
| Total Expenditure | £14,730 | £386,763 | £401,493 |
Quarterly Cost Phasing — FY 2026/27
Income — FY 2027/28
| Source | Brought Forward | FY 27/28 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trusts & Foundations | £750,000 | £100,000 | £850,000 |
| Corporate Partnerships | £250,000 | — | £250,000 |
| Supercar Driver Events | £180,000 | — | £180,000 |
| Zach's Garage Fundraiser | £100,000 | — | £100,000 |
| Nigel Mansell Income | £424,200 | — | £424,200 |
| Income for Fundraising Costs | £100,000 | — | £100,000 |
| Restricted Fund Drawdown | £369,500 | — | £369,500 |
| Mortgage (£2M) | — | £2,000,000 | £2,000,000 |
| Total Income | £2,173,700 | £2,100,000 | £4,273,700 |
Expenditure — FY 2027/28
| Category | FY 27/28 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Build Costs | £3,391,541 | £3,391,541 |
| 10% Retention Held | (£339,154) | (£339,154) |
| Irrecoverable VAT | £610,477 | £610,477 |
| Staff Travel | £1,500 | £7,630 |
| Salaries (Appeal Lead — 3 months) | £16,251 | £65,004 |
| Total Expenditure | £3,680,615 | £4,082,108 |
Quarterly Cost Phasing — FY 2027/28
FY 2028/29 — Post-Build Completion & Retention Release
| Category | FY 28/29 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 10% Retention Repayment | £339,154 | £339,154 |
| Irrecoverable VAT | £67,831 | £678,308 |
| Total Expenditure | £406,985 | £4,489,093 |
| Remaining to fund | £215,393 · via VAT recovery (under review) or uplift to fundraising target | |
3-Year Income & Expenditure Summary
Cash Flow & Sensitivity
Monthly cash position, cost phasing, VAT exposure and what-if scenarios
£3.66M
Peak Cash Balance
May 2027 (post-mortgage drawdown)
Sep 2028
Funding Required By
First month cash position dips below zero absent VAT recovery or additional fundraising
£215K
Fundraising Stretch (VAT contingency)
Additional fundraising needed only if VAT position unchanged. Closed directly by any VAT recovery.
£678K
VAT Recovery Opportunity
Under active review with new Finance Director. Any recovery flows to net position.
Monthly Cash Position — Apr 2026 to Mar 2029
Note: Closing balance dips by £215K in Feb–Mar 2029 once 10% retention payments fall due. This gap is entirely attributable to irrecoverable VAT (£678K across the build). It represents either a VAT recovery opportunity (under active review with the new Finance Director) or, as a contingency, a £215K uplift to the fundraising target. Two clear routes to close it.
Monthly Cost Phasing — Full 36-Month View
Irrecoverable VAT Exposure (Monthly)
FY 27/28: £610,477 (peak month Oct 27 £78K) · FY 28/29: £67,831 (3-month lag tail)
Restricted vs Unrestricted Income
Restricted: £369.5K (Nigel Mansell fund + other) is ring-fenced for capital. Remaining £3.9M must be raised or borrowed and is subject to fundraising / loan covenant risk.
Sensitivity Modelling — Adjust assumptions to see impact
0£0K£500K
0 mo0 months6 mo
0%0%+20%
Lowest Cash Point
(£215K)
Feb 2029
First Negative Month
Sep 2028
Final Cash Position
(£215K)
Reserves Required
£215K
Fundraising Pipeline
Named prospects, events series and declined funders — sourced from T&F April 2026 pipeline paper
£4.0M
Total Fundraising Target
Per T&F paper (capital + stretch)
£369.5K
Confirmed (Nigel Mansell)
9.2% of target
£1.32M
Weighted Pipeline + Confirmed
33% of target (probability-adjusted)
£2.68M
Gap to Close
Target − weighted pipeline
Progress to £4M Target
Confirmed £369.5K
Weighted pipeline £955K
Target £4.0M
Weighted Pipeline by Source
Totals £1.32M across 5 source categories. Lead donor + events are the largest confirmed streams.
Status Summary — T&F April 2026
Named Prospect Pipeline — grouped by status; £2M+ ask target
| Funder / Donor | Source | Ask (£) | Likelihood | Weighted (£) | Next Step |
|---|
Nigel Mansell Events Series 2026 — £444K Gross Target
| Event | Date | Projected Gross | Status / Notes |
|---|
Declined / No-Fit Funders — transparency on what's been tried
| Funder | Outcome | Reason |
|---|
Risk Register
18 active risks across 5 strategic categories — click any risk for details. Trend column compares May 2026 residual score to the April 2026 baseline: → unchanged · ↑ score increased · ↓ score decreased. Two new Loan Risks added this month (B1, B2).
1
Very High Risk
1
High Risk
11
Medium Risk
5
Low Risk
Risk Heat Map (Residual)
Likelihood
5
10
15
20
25
4
8
12
16
20
3
6
9
12
15
2
4
6
8
10
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Impact →
Project Milestones & Timeline
Key delivery dates for the Avon Tyrrell Capital Appeal
RIBA Project Stage — Current Position
Legend
Status (circle colour)
Complete
On track
At risk
Off track
Workstream (tag next to name)
Governance
Design
Loan
Fundraising
Build
Closeout
Recently Completed — all 100% per MS Project
Governance
FRACo Sign Off
24 Feb 2026 ✓
Initial project authorisation
Build
De-Risk Report Submission
10 Mar 2026 ✓
£12,810 actual cost
Governance
Trustee Board Green Light
12 Mar 2026 ✓
Board approval to proceed
Design
FRACo RIBA Stage 3 & 4 Costs
19 May 2026 ✓
£152K Stage 4 expenditure approved
Project Timeline — % complete per MS Project
Sep 2026
DesignRIBA Complete NEW 10%
30 Sep 2026 — RIBA Stage 4 Technical Design complete
30 Sep 2026 — RIBA Stage 4 Technical Design complete
Nov 2026
LoanFRACo Loan Sign Off NEW
11 Nov 2026 — FRACo loan authorisation gate
11 Nov 2026 — FRACo loan authorisation gate
Nov 2026
LoanBoard Loan Sign Off
12 Nov 2026 — £2M mortgage facility approval
12 Nov 2026 — £2M mortgage facility approval
May 2027
BuildSite Possession
03 May 2027 — Construction begins
03 May 2027 — Construction begins
May 2027
FundraisingAchieve £1M Capital Appeal 5%
31 May 2027 — Critical fundraising milestone (~£50K of £1M, weighted pipeline £1.32M of £4M target)
31 May 2027 — Critical fundraising milestone (~£50K of £1M, weighted pipeline £1.32M of £4M target)
Nov 2027
BuildWeather Tight
05 Nov 2027 — Building envelope complete
05 Nov 2027 — Building envelope complete
Feb 2028
BuildContract Completion
14 Feb 2028 — Build contract fulfilled
14 Feb 2028 — Build contract fulfilled
Feb 2029
CloseoutWithheld Payments Paid
12 Feb 2029 — 10% retention released
12 Feb 2029 — 10% retention released
Apr 2029
CloseoutProject End
06 Apr 2029 — Full project closure
06 Apr 2029 — Full project closure
Professional Design Team (FY 2026/27)
£47,500
Architect
£29,850
M&E Design Engineer
£23,785
Structural Engineering
£17,645
Project Management
£10,100
Drainage Engineer
£4,500
Principal Designer (Building Regs)
£4,500
Principal Designer (CDM)
£5,950
Fire, Building Control, SBEM, Ecology, Surveys