Capital Appeal 2026-2029
Avon Tyrrell
Experiential Learning & Sports Centre
A transformative new facility for young people, combining experiential learning with state-of-the-art sports provision in the heart of the New Forest.
£4.5M
Total Project Cost (inc. VAT)
£2.67M
Fundraising (ex. mortgage)
£2.0M
Mortgage Facility
Apr 2029
Project Completion
Explore Dashboard
Executive Summary
Project status as at 24 August 2026. Fundraising: £854K secured & likely (net) + £486K weighted pipeline = £1.34M — worst-case gap £1.16M to the £2.5M target; best case ~£2.1M if everything in pipeline and public fundraising lands at 100%. FY26/27 actuals to 31 July (Xero): income £255K, expenditure £46K, surplus £209K. Project plan on track — 25% complete overall (Case for Support done; 99-yr lease workstream 36→63%). No Very High risks remain — A3 improved 16→12; A1 now classified High.
Overall Status
AMBER
AMBER
Schedule
GREEN
GREEN
Budget
GREEN
Finance: Under Review
GREEN
Finance: Under Review
Risk
AMBER
AMBER
Resources
GREEN
GREEN
Fundraising in-house — Joe Trueman appointed Capital Appeal Trust & Foundation Lead (internal); consultant contracts ended as planned, savings reflected in budget
£4.5M
Total Project Cost (inc. VAT)
Income £4.67M vs expenditure £4.47M · ~£200K contingency
£854K
Secured & Likely (net)
34% of £2.5M fundraising target · net of event costs · incl. Bernard Sunley £100K
18
Active Risks
0 Very High • 3 High • 10 Medium • 5 Low (A3 ↓ 16→12 · no Very High)
Apr 2029
Target Completion
~25% complete overall · 13 milestones tracked · 4 done
Funding Sources Breakdown
Annual Budget Phasing (£)
Key Milestones — status · workstream · % complete
- DesignFRACo Sign off RIBA Stage 3 & 4 Costs 100%19 May 2026
- LoanPay Solicitors (lease, £28K) 60%18 Sep 2026
- DesignRIBA Complete 25%30 Sep 2026
- LoanFRACo Loan Sign Off11 Nov 2026
- LoanBoard Loan Sign Off12 Nov 2026
- BuildPlanning Conditions Signed Off 20%01 May 2027
- BuildSite Possession03 May 2027
- FundraisingAchieve £1M Appeal 10%31 May 2027
- BuildWeather Tight05 Nov 2027
- FundraisingAchieve £0.5M Further Appeal NEW03 Dec 2027
- BuildContract Completion14 Feb 2028
- CloseoutWithheld Payments Paid12 Feb 2029
- CloseoutProject End06 Apr 2029
Top Risks — click for details
A1 - Funding Shortfall
Residual Score: 12 → now classified HIGH
HIGH
Residual Score: 12 → now classified HIGH
A3 - Economic Downturn / Funding Climate Shift
Residual Score: 12 ↓ was 16 no longer Very High
HIGH
Residual Score: 12 ↓ was 16 no longer Very High
A4 - Resourcing & Capacity Constraints
Residual Score: 9 →
HIGH
Residual Score: 9 →
B2 - 99-Year Lease Failure
Residual Score: 8 → (inherent ↓ 15→10)
MEDIUM
Residual Score: 8 → (inherent ↓ 15→10)
B1 - £2M Bank Loan Failure
Residual Score: 6 →
MEDIUM
Residual Score: 6 →
Fundraising Pipeline — August 2026 update · click for full detail
Progress to £2.5M fundraising target
£1.34M secured + weighted · 54% of target
Banked £607K
Committed + likely £247K
Weighted pipeline £486K
Gap after pipeline: £1.16M (worst case)
Secured & Likely (net)
£854K
34% of target
Banked £607K · committed £127K (incl. Bernard Sunley £100K) · likely £120K
Bradbury Foundation
£200K
80% weighted
Ask £250K · revised proposal by mid-Sep · decision Nov 2026
Jack Petchey Foundation
£80K
80% weighted
Ask £100K · submitted · awaiting decision
Grants in Development
£115K
weighted
Garfield Weston (on hold until 50% secured) · National Lottery · Postcode Innovation
2027 Events Pipeline
£91K
weighted
Supercar Driver Club track day · Zach's Garage · James Skziller
Youth Matters Fund — Prospect
£500K
potential · not in figures
SIB bidding to DCMS · eligibility known end 2026 · Jacob influencing
Scenarios: worst case £1.34M (secured + weighted) leaves a £1.16M gap · best case ~£2.1M if all pipeline (£1.17M ask) and public fundraising ideas (£105K) land at 100% — public fundraising needs additional resource in Sam's team / at AT · Youth Matters Fund could be a major further opportunity
RIBA Project Stage — click for timeline
Decisions Required — next FRACo 8 Sep 2026
T&F Actions Log — per May 2026 meeting · blue = complete · green = ongoing / on track · amber = at risk
| ID | Action | Owner | Status | Notes |
|---|
Team & Capacity — linked to risk A4 (Resourcing, High)
Capital Appeal Trust & Foundation Lead
Joe Trueman
Internal appointment — bids written in-house
Corporate Partnerships
Theo Fox (permanent)
AT & Outdoor Learning focus — site visited
Consultants
None
Contracts ended as planned — staffing savings reflected in budget
Staffing Budget
£21K across 3 years — in-house model (was £65K with consultants)
Supporting Team
Vicky · David · Caroline · Rosie — risk owners
Budget Overview
Three-year capital appeal financial plan 2026–2029
£4.67M
Total Income (3-Year)
£174K above target (incl. 25/26 income) · click for breakdown
£4.47M
Total Expenditure (3-Year)
~£200K surplus / contingency
£3.39M
Build Costs (FY27/28)
Click for breakdown
£2.0M
Mortgage Facility
Click for breakdown
FY 2026/27
FY 2027/28
FY 2028/29
3-Year Summary
FY 2026/27 Actuals vs Budget — per Xero, as at 31 July 2026
Income to Date
£255K
~15% of £1.75M FY26/27 income budget
Expenditure to Date
£46K
~12% of £375K FY26/27 expenditure budget
Surplus to Date
£209K
Income running ahead of expenditure phasing
Income — FY 2026/27
| Source | Pre-Apr 2026 | FY 26/27 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trusts & Foundations | — | £750,000 | £750,000 |
| Corporate Partnerships | — | £250,000 | £250,000 |
| Supercar Driver Events* | — | £135,000 | £135,000 |
| Zach's Garage Fundraiser | — | £100,000 | £100,000 |
| Nigel Mansell Income | £24,200 | £410,000 | £434,200 |
| Income for Fundraising Costs | — | £100,000 | £100,000 |
| Restricted Fund Drawdown | £369,500 | — | £369,500 |
| Total Income | £393,700 | £1,745,000 | £2,138,700 |
*Supercar income still being finalised — 169 tickets sold; gross could reach ~£200K vs £135K net budgeted.
Expenditure — FY 2026/27
| Category | Pre-Apr 2026 | FY 26/27 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staff Travel | £130 | £6,000 | £6,130 |
| Mobile Phone | — | £180 | £180 |
| Consultants | — | £15,000 | £15,000 |
| Capital Appeal Events | — | £16,000 | £16,000 |
| Event Catering | — | £10,000 | £10,000 |
| Supercar Driver Events | — | £45,000 | £45,000 |
| Zach's Garage Events | — | £40,000 | £40,000 |
| Design & Marketing | — | £9,000 | £9,000 |
| Finance Arrangement Fees (loan) | — | £45,000 | £45,000 |
| Legal & Professional (incl. £28K lease) | £1,800 | £28,000 | £29,800 |
| Build De-Risk | £12,800 | — | £12,800 |
| Professional Fees (Design Team) | — | £151,830 | £151,830 |
| Salaries (in-house bid writing) | — | £9,000 | £9,000 |
| Total Expenditure | £14,730 | £375,010 | £389,740 |
Quarterly Cost Phasing — FY 2026/27
Income — FY 2027/28
| Source | Brought Forward | FY 27/28 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trusts & Foundations | £750,000 | £500,000 | £1,250,000 |
| Corporate Partnerships | £250,000 | — | £250,000 |
| Supercar Driver Events | £135,000 | — | £135,000 |
| Zach's Garage Fundraiser | £100,000 | — | £100,000 |
| Nigel Mansell Income | £434,200 | — | £434,200 |
| Income for Fundraising Costs | £100,000 | — | £100,000 |
| Restricted Fund Drawdown | £369,500 | — | £369,500 |
| Mortgage (£2M) | — | £2,000,000 | £2,000,000 |
| Total Income | £2,138,700 | £2,500,000 | £4,638,700 |
| 3-Year Total (incl. £35K event income adjustments) | £4,673,700 | ||
Expenditure — FY 2027/28
| Category | FY 27/28 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| Build Costs | £3,391,541 | £3,391,541 |
| 10% Retention Held | (£339,154) | (£339,154) |
| Irrecoverable VAT | £610,477 | £610,477 |
| Staff Travel | £1,500 | £7,630 |
| Salaries (in-house) | £12,000 | £21,000 |
| Total Expenditure | £3,676,364 | £4,066,104 |
Quarterly Cost Phasing — FY 2027/28
FY 2028/29 — Post-Build Completion & Retention Release
| Category | FY 28/29 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| 10% Retention Repayment | £339,154 | £339,154 |
| Irrecoverable VAT | £67,831 | £678,308 |
| Total Expenditure | £406,985 | £4,473,089 |
| Surplus / Contingency (Income − Expenditure) | +£200,611 · previous £215K shortfall closed via higher Trusts target and staffing savings | |
3-Year Income & Expenditure Summary
Cash Flow & Sensitivity
Monthly cash position, cost phasing, VAT exposure and what-if scenarios
£2.33M
Peak Cash Balance
Sep 2027 (post-mortgage drawdown)
Positive
Cash Position — All 36 Months
Lowest point ~£166K (Feb 2029). Budget no longer dips below zero.
£200K
Surplus / Contingency
Income £4.67M vs expenditure £4.47M. Previous £215K shortfall closed.
£678K
VAT Recovery Opportunity
Worst case still assumed in budget. Any recovery adds directly to contingency.
Monthly Cash Position — Apr 2026 to Mar 2029
Note: Following the July 2026 budget rework, the cash position now stays positive across all 36 months and closes with a ~£200K contingency. The improvement comes from a higher Trusts & Foundations target in FY27/28 (+£400K) and staffing savings (consultants ended, bids in-house). Irrecoverable VAT (£678K) is still assumed at worst case — any recovery adds directly to the contingency. Income timing and amounts will flex as the appeal progresses; income delivery remains the key risk (see A1).
Monthly Cost Phasing — Full 36-Month View
Irrecoverable VAT Exposure (Monthly)
FY 27/28: £610,477 (peak month Oct 27 £78K) · FY 28/29: £67,831 (3-month lag tail)
Restricted vs Unrestricted Income
Restricted: £369.5K (Nigel Mansell fund + other) is ring-fenced for capital. Remaining £3.9M must be raised or borrowed and is subject to fundraising / loan covenant risk.
Sensitivity Modelling — Adjust assumptions to see impact
0£0K£500K
0 mo0 months6 mo
0%0%+20%
Lowest Cash Point
(£215K)
Feb 2029
First Negative Month
Sep 2028
Final Cash Position
(£215K)
Reserves Required
£215K
Fundraising Pipeline
Named prospects, secured income and weighted pipeline — sourced from Vicky's pipeline update, August 2026. £854K secured & likely (net) · £486K weighted pipeline · worst-case gap £1.16M · best case ~£2.1M.
£2.5M
Fundraising Target
Per August 2026 pipeline paper
£854K
Secured & Likely (net)
Banked £607K · committed £127K (incl. Bernard Sunley £100K) · likely £120K
£486K
Weighted Pipeline
Total pipeline ask £1.17M, probability-adjusted
£1.16M
Gap After Pipeline (Worst Case)
Best case ~£2.1M if pipeline + public fundraising all land at 100%
Progress to £2.5M Target
Banked £607K
Committed £127K
Likely £120K
Weighted pipeline £486K
Gap £1.16M · Target £2.5M
Path to £2.5M Target
Secured & likely £854K (net) + weighted pipeline £486K = £1.34M, leaving a worst-case gap of £1.16M. Best case ~£2.1M if all pipeline (£1.17M ask) and public fundraising ideas (£105K) land at 100% — still short of the £2.5M target.
Status Summary — August 2026
Named Prospect Pipeline — grouped by status · per August 2026 pipeline · Bradbury & Jack Petchey now 80% weighted
| Funder / Donor | Source | Ask (£) | Likelihood | Weighted (£) | Next Step |
|---|
Income Secured & Likely — £854K net to date — net of event costs · incl. Bernard Sunley £100K committed
| Event | Date | Projected Gross | Status / Notes |
|---|
Public Fundraising Ideas 2027–28 — £105K projected net · not in pipeline figures
| Activity | Projected Net |
|---|---|
| Buy a Brick @ £200 (6 sold at 11 Aug; target 125) | £25,000 |
| Local beneficiary / challenge events | £25,000 |
| Sponsored sleepout (corporate partners) | £25,000 |
| Local pledge dinner (Lord & Lady Manners to host?) | £20,000 |
| Donate option on AT booking form | £10,000 |
| Open days · funders circle · regular giving · milestone campaigns | TBC |
| Total quantified | £105,000 |
Caveat: pursuing these ideas would need additional dedicated resource in Sam's team / at Avon Tyrrell.
Prospect — Youth Matters Fund — not included in pipeline figures
£500K
potential · weighted at 10% in prospects only
Social Investment Business (SIB) is currently bidding to DCMS for the Youth Matters Fund. If Avon Tyrrell is included within the fund's geographical scope, this could be a major opportunity for the appeal.
- Eligibility will not be known until the end of this calendar year
- Funding would not be distributed until the beginning of next financial year (FY27/28)
- Jacob holds the SIB relationship and is prioritising influencing as the bid progresses
On Hold / Declined Funders — per August 2026 pipeline · transparency on what's been tried
| Funder | Outcome | Reason |
|---|
Risk Register
18 active risks across 5 strategic categories — click any risk for details. Trend column compares August 2026 residual score to the July 2026 position: → unchanged · ↑ score increased · ↓ score decreased. This month: A3 Economic Downturn improved 16→12 (Very High → High) — no Very High risks remain; A1 Funding Shortfall reclassified High (score unchanged at 12); A4 mitigation updated — fundraising responsibility spread across the Director of Fundraising's team.
0
Very High Risk
3
High Risk
10
Medium Risk
5
Low Risk
Risk Heat Map (Residual)
Likelihood
5
10
15
20
25
4
8
12
16
20
3
6
9
12
15
2
4
6
8
10
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Impact →
Project Milestones & Timeline
Key delivery dates for the Avon Tyrrell Capital Appeal
RIBA Project Stage — Current Position
Legend
Status (circle colour)
Complete
On track
At risk
Off track
Workstream (tag next to name)
Governance
Design
Loan
Fundraising
Build
Closeout
Workstream Progress — % complete per MS Project, August 2026 · all workstreams on track · ~25% overall
Fundraising45%
Lease (99yr)63%
Loan (£2M)30%
RIBA Stage 460%
Build13%
Recently Completed — all 100% per MS Project
Governance
FRACo Sign Off
24 Feb 2026 ✓
Initial project authorisation
Build
De-Risk Report Submission
10 Mar 2026 ✓
£12,810 actual cost
Governance
Trustee Board Green Light
12 Mar 2026 ✓
Board approval to proceed
Design
FRACo RIBA Stage 3 & 4 Costs
19 May 2026 ✓
£152K Stage 4 expenditure approved
Project Timeline — % complete per MS Project
Sep 2026
LoanPay Solicitors 60%
18 Sep 2026 — £28K lease legal fees; lease drafting 70% complete, for September Board
18 Sep 2026 — £28K lease legal fees; lease drafting 70% complete, for September Board
Sep 2026
DesignRIBA Complete 25%
30 Sep 2026 — RIBA Stage 4 Technical Design complete
30 Sep 2026 — RIBA Stage 4 Technical Design complete
Nov 2026
LoanFRACo Loan Sign Off Loan workstream 30%
11 Nov 2026 — FRACo loan authorisation gate
11 Nov 2026 — FRACo loan authorisation gate
Nov 2026
LoanBoard Loan Sign Off
12 Nov 2026 — £2M mortgage facility approval
12 Nov 2026 — £2M mortgage facility approval
May 2027
BuildPlanning Conditions Signed Off 20%
01 May 2027 — Pre-commencement planning conditions discharged (NFNP) — workstream 18% complete
01 May 2027 — Pre-commencement planning conditions discharged (NFNP) — workstream 18% complete
May 2027
BuildSite Possession
03 May 2027 — Construction begins
03 May 2027 — Construction begins
May 2027
FundraisingAchieve £1M Capital Appeal 10%
31 May 2027 — Critical fundraising milestone (£854K secured & likely + £486K weighted pipeline vs £2.5M target)
31 May 2027 — Critical fundraising milestone (£854K secured & likely + £486K weighted pipeline vs £2.5M target)
Nov 2027
BuildWeather Tight
05 Nov 2027 — Building envelope complete
05 Nov 2027 — Building envelope complete
Dec 2027
FundraisingAchieve £0.5M Further Appeal Funding NEW
03 Dec 2027 — Second-phase fundraising target (HNWI, corporates, 2027 events)
03 Dec 2027 — Second-phase fundraising target (HNWI, corporates, 2027 events)
Feb 2028
BuildContract Completion
14 Feb 2028 — Build contract fulfilled
14 Feb 2028 — Build contract fulfilled
Feb 2029
CloseoutWithheld Payments Paid
12 Feb 2029 — 10% retention released
12 Feb 2029 — 10% retention released
Apr 2029
CloseoutProject End
06 Apr 2029 — Full project closure
06 Apr 2029 — Full project closure
Professional Design Team (FY 2026/27)
£47,500
Architect
£29,850
M&E Design Engineer
£23,785
Structural Engineering
£17,645
Project Management
£10,100
Drainage Engineer
£4,500
Principal Designer (Building Regs)
£4,500
Principal Designer (CDM)
£5,950
Fire, Building Control, SBEM, Ecology, Surveys